i would add also that the song seems to imply that you know�what's going to happen, yet you do it anyway -- the epitome of self-destructive, victim-playing behavior.�� that's where "look straight at the coming disaster/realize what you've lost" comes in.� it's a present realization of the inevitable future consequences that YOU are initiating with YOUR choices now.�
in a slightly different but no less bleak interpretation, I see the verses as a progression of self-awareness, from a guileless child casually victimized by another kid�with a little more experience�in the art of the deal, to a fully cognizant�adult standing his ground or holding to his convictions�or offering his best attempt at�a "fair deal", knowing full well that the results probably will be painful because by and large the world isn't fair.�If you play fair or stand on your principles or are trustworthy and extend trust to other people, you give�them weapons to use against you�(horseshoes), and human nature makes it almost inevitable that�someone will use them.���But once you're aware of the conflict between your principles and a desired result,�("i dreamed i went to heaven 'cause i told my lover lies"), if you diminish your risk and expectation and attitude of trust in order to feel "safe" and avoid pain, you extinguish your dearest hopes for�genuine happiness, and your finest instincts.� (verse 3).
it's a dark dark song, and i love it.�